Prepare dinner Political Report Senior Editor Jessica Taylor spoke to C-SPAN’s John McArdle on Washington Journal on Thursday and explained why Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) is dealing with a serious reelection problem this year — his Cancun downside.

“Each race is a potential majority maker in the Senate this yr. This week, you wrote about Senator Ted Cruz’s race in opposition to Democratic Congressman Colin Allred, a race that’s becoming more competitive with lower than 5 weeks to head unless Election Day,’ McArdle began.

“Yeah, I mean, and that is good information for Democrats as a result of they haven’t, the overall map is very hard for Democrats. They have got a 51/forty nine majority, nevertheless it functionally begins at 50/50 because they’re going to lose that West Virginia seat with Joe Manchin retiring,” Taylor spoke back, adding:

So that means that they can’t have enough money to lose any incumbent and they have got to have Vice President Kamala Harris win the presidency. Now, Montana is person who we moved a couple of weeks in the past. Jon Tester is by means of some distance probably the most susceptible incumbent, and we see him as the underdog. So we shifted that race to lean Republican. In order that signifies that if Democrats nonetheless desire a achievable course to the majority, they have to seek out another offensive goal. And an increasing number of, Texas is changing into that focus on. You’ve gotten Ted Cruz, of course, he gained by using less than three points in 2018 in opposition to Beto O’Rourke. That was once in a midterm election, although in presidential elections must be tougher in Texas. However there’s a few unique things going down.

Listen, Ted Cruz is polarizing. And, , he’s he’s tried to you understand, he’s he’s emphasised his work as a legislator. He sort of toned down the bombastic character that we know. However he’s running in opposition to Colin Allred, who is a extra centrist congressman, flipped his seat in 2018 from crimson to blue in the midterm election. Then he was once drawn right into a protected seat. So we actually may have stayed in this suburban Dallas seat for so long as he wanted. But Democrats convincing him to run for Senate was actually reasonably the coup. And so he’s been in a position to fundraise.

In reality, the latest numbers here in Texas, he’s already spent virtually $50 million. And between Allred’s campaign versus Cruz and his allies have handiest spent about 22.three million. So that heavy advantage on air has enabled, I think, all purple to lift his name I.D., to get his message in the market. And there are two things that I believe Cruz is uniquely susceptible on. Abortion is now, after all, a much bigger issue than it was in 2018 after the Dobbs resolution.

Texas is one of the most restrictive laws within the country. After which Cancun. I used to be observing a focus staff a couple of weeks in the past of undecided Trump voters on this Senate race, they usually straight away brought up Cancun, which in 2021, after the state was hit laborious with a wintry weather storm, energy outages, the facility grid failed. Cruz went with his domestic on a trip to Mexico. He was very much assailed for this. There was type of this iconic picture of him coming back, rolling a suitcase with a Texas masks. Allred options that in a variety of his ads. Talks about Ted Cruz abandoned us once we needed him.

And so I feel it kind of additional inflames why people have very strong feelings about Ted Cruz. However you see Republicans now placing extra money in the race, painting Allred, as you understand, tied to Harris and Biden, particularly on immigration. However we’re seeing tightening ballot numbers right here and elevated spending.

McArdle followed up, “That’s why I need to center of attention on the ballot numbers. Is it as a result of Texas is the very best bad possibility for Democrats with no longer quite a few objectives? Or is there in fact polling right here displaying that that Allred has a route?”

“We’ve viewed it between I’ve seen polling between 2 and three points, I believe almost certainly with Cruz ahead. Yes, Cruz remains to be leading. And, you recognize, I feel Republicans have it fairly greater. But in public polling, we have seen it in that. However I think also those final 2 to 3 points in Texas are simply Herculean,” Taylor answered, concluding:

However I think it’s you’re proper, it is form of the very best dangerous possibility continues to be very troublesome. However the truth that Allred is elevating his personal money and can get these decrease candidate charges. And when it comes to promoting, , I kind of bring to mind it in the other the other bucket is, is Florida, after all. Senator Rick Scott also up for reelection there, also, you already know, has had concerns together with his approval rankings and favorability. But Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, his Democratic opponent, has just no longer been ready to fundraise at the level that already has.

Now we now have national Democrats, the Democratic Senatorial marketing Campaign Committee said this week or stated final week they’re putting cash in both races. Up to now we’ve seen that express. We’ve considered that express up in hybrid ads and things. But I believe that while you take a look at kind of the place the cash is and the truth that Ted Cruz can’t write himself a check versus Rick Scott in Florida, who’s a multimillionaire, can.

Watch the clip above by the use of C-SPAN.

The post Pollster Breaks Down Ted Cruz’s Cancun Problem In Reelection Bid: ‘Abandoned Us When We Needed Him’ first appeared on Mediaite.