(AP Photograph/Nam Y. Huh, File)

Nate Silver’s latest election forecast couldn’t get a lot closer.

In the newest replace on his Silver Bulletin substack page Sunday, the widely-adopted election guru gave former President Donald Trump a fifty one.5 p.c likelihood to succeed in the electoral school, and Vice President Kamala Harris a 48.1 percent chance.

“It’s a pure toss up,” Silver posted on X, previously Twitter.

Silver arrived at his latest forecast via factoring in swing state polls from each the Morning Seek the advice of and The New York Times. Harris fared better within the Occasions polls — which confirmed her ahead in 4 of the seven battlegrounds, tied in two, and trailing best in Arizona. Trump carried out enhanced in the Morning Consult polls — which had him ahead in three swing states, and tied in two others.

As for the gorgeous Iowa survey from trendy pollster Ann Selzer which confirmed Harris major Iowa via three factors, Silver stated he believes the survey “almost certainly received’t subject” by hook or by crook in determining the electoral faculty winner. But Silver did word that Harris supporters are justified in their reaction to the stunning survey.

“I feel Harris voters are cheap in rejoicing over the Selzer survey,” Silver wrote. “At the very least, it clinches the case that there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters in the final batch of polls that strengthen a Harris victory — together with roughly as many that suggest a Trump win. If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it has now petered out in November. And we will very probably go into Tuesday night time with the race being really a toss-up, no longer leaning or tilting toward Trump.”

Silver gave Joe Biden an 89 percent chance of victory in his final 2020 forecast and Trump a roughly 30 percent chance in his last 2016 prognostication — which was so much higher than many other election forecasters.

The submit ‘A Pure Toss Up’: Nate Silver Says Race Now a Coin Flip Amid Flood of New Polls — Together with Ann Selzer’s Shocker in Iowa first regarded on Mediaite.